Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.1
- Upside to median
- -0.9%
- Last close
- $47.96
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +62.0%
- P75
- +32.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry or cash flow, so the distribution is price change only: a near-zero central drift against a 4.58% risk-free alternative, with dispersion set from the asset's own realized volatility characteristics rather than from a valuation model. The width of this range, not its centre, is the decision-relevant output.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -2.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median of 2.0% sits below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. With no cash flow and an outcome range spanning roughly minus 48% to plus 62%, the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with dramatically lower uncertainty.