Valuation Lens — September 27, 2026
With the 1-year Treasury at 4.50% and the 10-year real yield at 2.83%, the widest fair-value gaps run from emerging-market and Chinese equities trading below modeled economic value to US large-cap equities and crude oil trading above it.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
Cash and short Treasuries pay 4.08%-4.50%, the 10-year par yield is 5.17% and the 10-year real yield is 2.83%, so risk assets must clear an unusually high real opportunity cost.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.2%
- 10y real
- 2.8%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.5Cheap
- Median fair value
- 108.0100.0–117.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +11.8%-16.0% to 33.0%
- vs Treasury
- +7.3%
- +1.4Cheap
- Median fair value
- 110.098.8–122.6
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +11.0%-22.0% to 38.0%
- vs Treasury
- +6.5%
- Fixed IncomeBND+1.0Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.599.2–103.8
- Upside to median
- +1.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.3%-2.2% to 12.2%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- +0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.096.7–110.1
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.4%-12.5% to 26.5%
- vs Treasury
- +4.9%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.086.6–127.9
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.5%-47.0% to 80.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.0%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.590.1–108.9
- Upside to median
- -0.5%
- 1y modeled
- +7.2%-13.5% to 22.5%
- vs Treasury
- +2.7%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.092.0–106.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.6%-11.5% to 24.5%
- vs Treasury
- +4.1%
- MetalsGLD-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.086.2–104.7
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.2%-19.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.3%
- -1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.087.1–102.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.4%-13.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.387.4–99.2
- Upside to median
- -6.7%
- 1y modeled
- +6.8%-14.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.3%
- EnergyUSO-1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 87.075.0–97.7
- Upside to median
- -13.0%
- 1y modeled
- -5.5%-32.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- -10.0%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 25.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 75% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 37.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 41.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 51.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 61.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 68.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources10
- 1Earnings Insight, September 25, 2026FactSet Research Systems
- 2
- 3Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 4
- 5Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) portfolio fundamentalsThe Vanguard Group
- 6Economic Growth Is Forecast to Drive a 'Modest' Rise in European Stocks This YearGoldman Sachs Research
- 7
- 8Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 9Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 2026 Record as BTC Price Holds Above $84KThe Coin Republic
- 10
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-09-27_260927001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.