Metals
Today’s price sits at the 61.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $393.41
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +3.2%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -19.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial real-price normalisation as a drag, offset by expected inflation near 2.34%, continued official-sector demand, and free cash flow from the mining-equity sleeve. Gold and the other metals generate no income, so there is no carry term to support the median. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -7.5%
Real price drifting modestly lower from an all-time high against a 2.34% expected inflation rate, with structural official-sector demand preventing the full reversion the historical real-yield relationship would imply.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- -1.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 3.2% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield gives a negative expected edge of 1.3 percentage points. On this evidence the one-year Treasury offers a higher expected return than this asset class with materially lower uncertainty, and that should be stated plainly.