Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 41.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 106.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- Last close
- $47.57
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +80.0%
- P75
- +42.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -21.0%
- P10
- -47.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial convergence toward the on-chain cost-basis anchor about 13% above spot, plus continued adoption-driven demand against fixed issuance, less a very high required risk premium. The tenth-to-ninetieth percentile span of 127 percentage points is intentional: it is the honest width for an asset with no contractual cash flow. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +39.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
Adoption and regulated-access growth against a fixed and halving issuance schedule, discounted at a required return well above equity, with no assumption that cost-basis anchors mean-revert on a fixed schedule.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +4.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 8.5% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. The modeled edge of 4.0 percentage points is accompanied by a tenth-percentile outcome of -47%, so on an uncertainty-adjusted basis the one-year Treasury offers a competitive proposition here more clearly than anywhere else in this report.