Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 25.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 75% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 108.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Last close
- $60.16
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +11.8%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -16.0%
74% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward earnings growth shrunk from a consensus near 19% for 2027 to 10% for revision bias, plus an index dividend yield near 2.7%, plus roughly one fifth of the 8.0-point normalised fair-value gap closing over twelve months. Dispersion is widened for currency and political risk. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +9.2%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 6.5% per year plus a 2.7% dividend yield plus roughly 60% of the current fair-value gap converging over three years, shrunk toward a global equity prior.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +7.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 11.8% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. This is a modeled spread against a contractual alternative, not a guaranteed excess return, and the dispersion around it is far wider than the Treasury's.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $60.16 | +11.8% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $101.15 | +11.8% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $114.78 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $187.18 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $36.82 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $66.48 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.86 | — |