US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.3
- Upside to median
- -6.7%
- Last close
- $771.35
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward earnings growth of 7% over the coming year, shrunk well below consensus because the profit base is at a record 12.07% of GDP, plus a combined dividend and net buyback yield near 2.4%, less about 2.5 percentage points of valuation drift reflecting partial convergence of the 6.7-point negative fair-value gap under high real rates. The long-run historical average equity return was used only as a sanity check, not as the forecast. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.8%
- P75
- +8.6%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.2%
- P10
- -3.0%
Sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 4% per year, deliberately below nominal GDP growth because the profit share is at a record high, plus a 2.4% shareholder yield, less roughly 1.4 percentage points per year from partial fair-value convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +2.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 6.8% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. A 2.3-point modeled edge for accepting a tenth-percentile outcome of -14% is historically thin compensation, and it is consistent with a forward earnings yield that exceeds the ten-year Treasury by only four basis points.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 93.3 | $771.35 | +6.8% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.7Expensive | 93.3 | $517.49 | +6.8% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.7Expensive | 93.3 | $211.11 | +6.8% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $281.97 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $744.50 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $606.56 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.84 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.43 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.70 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $110.56 | — |