Energy
Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 87.0
- Upside to median
- -13.0%
- Last close
- $148.33
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- -5.5%
- P25
- -18.0%
- P10
- -32.0%
41% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blend of a commodity sleeve converging partway toward the official 2027 Brent average of 74 dollars from a 2026 average of 91, with additional roll cost for front-month futures vehicles, and a producer-equity sleeve earning a roughly 3.3% dividend yield with volume growth offsetting part of the price decline. The commodity sleeve is modeled near -12% and the producer sleeve near +2%. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +5.5%
- Median
- -1.5%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
Crude settling toward a marginal-cost-plus-return level in the low to mid seventies with US production rising to 14.3 million barrels per day, natural gas easing on record production, partly offset by producer free cash flow and distributions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- -10.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of -5.5% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield gives a negative expected edge of 10.0 percentage points, the widest negative edge in this report. On this evidence the one-year Treasury offers a materially better expected return with far lower uncertainty, and that should be stated plainly.