Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 37.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $97.93
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.5%
- P75
- +18.5%
- Median
- +9.4%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -12.5%
75% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward earnings growth of 6% shrunk from the mid-teens step implied by the trailing-to-forward multiple spread, plus a modeled combined dividend and buyback yield near 3.4%, plus roughly one fifth of the 3.0-point normalised fair-value gap closing. Dispersion is widened materially because the benchmark is unhedged and yen moves dominate one-year dollar outcomes. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.8%
- Median
- +7.6%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 4.5% per year plus a 3.4% shareholder yield rising with continued payout reform, plus partial convergence of the current fair-value gap.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +4.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 9.4% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. For an unhedged dollar investor a large share of the dispersion around this edge is currency rather than equity risk.