China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 110.0
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- Last close
- $52.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +25.5%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled earnings growth of 9% shrunk from higher published expectations, plus a combined dividend and buyback yield near 3.5%, plus roughly one fifth of the 10.0-point normalised fair-value gap closing over twelve months, then haircut for policy and geopolitical variance. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -6.5%
Sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 6% per year plus a 3.5% shareholder yield plus roughly half of the current fair-value gap converging over three years, with a structural discount retained rather than removed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +6.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 11.0% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. The modeled edge is the second largest in this report, but so is the dispersion: the tenth percentile outcome is -22%, against a contractual 4.50% from the Treasury.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.4Cheap | 110.0 | $52.62 | +11.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.4Cheap | 110.0 | $33.96 | +11.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.4Cheap | 110.0 | $25.38 | +11.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.09 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.27 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.91 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $46.44 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.58 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.26 | — |