Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $88.63
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.6%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -11.5%
74% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth of 6%, shrunk from the 7% 2027 strategist forecast, plus an index dividend yield near 3.1% and buybacks near 0.8%, less a modest valuation drift reflecting high global real rates. Dispersion is widened for unhedged euro and sterling exposure, which is treated as symmetric rather than directional. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- -1.5%
Sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 4% per year, consistent with euro-area real GDP growth near 1.3% plus inflation, plus a 3.9% combined shareholder yield, with essentially no valuation convergence assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +4.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 8.6% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. Unusually for this report the edge comes almost entirely from income and earnings growth rather than from a fair-value gap, since the median fair-value index is 99.0.