Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 68.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $28.43
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.4%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled earnings growth of 5%, constrained by a bank- and resource-weighted index, plus a high combined dividend and buyback yield near 4.0%, less a valuation drag reflecting an 18.71x starting multiple and the 5.0-point negative fair-value gap. Dispersion is widened for unhedged Australian dollar and Singapore dollar exposure. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.8%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +0.8%
- P10
- -3.5%
Sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 3.5% per year plus a 4.0% shareholder yield, less partial multiple normalisation from an elevated starting point over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 6.4% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. A 1.9-point modeled edge with a tenth-percentile outcome of -13% is thin compensation, and most of the edge is the dividend yield rather than any valuation gain.