Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 51.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.5
- Upside to median
- -0.5%
- Last close
- $90.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.5%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +7.2%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -13.5%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A benchmark distribution yield near 4.3% plus funds-from-operations growth of 5%, decelerating from the reported 12.4%, less an annual refinancing drag and the modest fair-value convergence implied by a median index of 99.5. The distribution is modeled, not a calibrated probability statement.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.2%
- P75
- +10.8%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +2.4%
- P10
- -2.5%
Distribution yield near 4.3% plus same-store net operating income growth of about 4% carried forward, less a cumulative refinancing drag as the 5.8-year average debt maturity reprices toward current rates.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected median return of 7.2% less the 4.50% one-year Treasury par yield. Most of that 2.7-point edge comes from income and rent growth rather than from valuation convergence, since the fair-value median is essentially at the market price.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.1Fair | 99.5 | $90.99 | +7.2% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.1Fair | 99.5 | $41.56 | +7.2% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.1Fair | 99.5 | $26.06 | +7.2% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $18.90 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $89.20 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.00 | — |