Valuation Lens — September 25, 2026

With the 10-year Treasury at 5.17% and its real yield at 2.83%, contractual cash-flow assets carry the widest modeled fair-value premium to market, while the US equity aggregate, crude oil and gold trade above their modeled economic value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 25, 2026Last market session Sep 25, 2026Data cutoff Sep 25, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.50%1y Treasury

Cash and short Treasuries pay 4.08%-4.50%, and the 10-year real yield of 2.83% sits near the top of its ten-year range, so every risk asset must clear an unusually high opportunity cost.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.8%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+2.1
Cheap
Median fair value
104.3101.4–107.4
Upside to median
+4.3%
1y modeled
+5.5%-2.5% to 13.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.9
Cheap
Median fair value
110.2102.2–118.9
Upside to median
+10.2%
1y modeled
+8.0%-14.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.9
Cheap
Median fair value
115.2103.8–127.5
Upside to median
+15.2%
1y modeled
+10.0%-20.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+5.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+1.7
Cheap
Median fair value
109.2101.2–117.9
Upside to median
+9.2%
1y modeled
+8.5%-12.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+4.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
105.999.1–113.3
Upside to median
+5.9%
1y modeled
+7.5%-13.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
108.898.6–120.0
Upside to median
+8.8%
1y modeled
+8.0%-17.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
97.680.3–113.5
Upside to median
-2.4%
1y modeled
+5.0%-50.0% to 85.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.189.7–103.9
Upside to median
-2.9%
1y modeled
+5.5%-14.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
MetalsGLD
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
90.379.8–100.0
Upside to median
-9.7%
1y modeled
+1.5%-21.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-3.0%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
90.182.7–96.9
Upside to median
-9.9%
1y modeled
+6.5%-14.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
EnergyUSO
-2.1
Expensive
Median fair value
82.970.5–94.2
Upside to median
-17.2%
1y modeled
-6.0%-34.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-10.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-25, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+2.1 Cheap	104.3 101.4–107.4	+4.3%	+5.5% -2.5% to 13.0%	+1.0%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.9 Cheap	110.2 102.2–118.9	+10.2%	+8.0% -14.0% to 24.0%	+3.5%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.9 Cheap	115.2 103.8–127.5	+15.2%	+10.0% -20.0% to 38.0%	+5.5%
Europe Equities VGK	+1.7 Cheap	109.2 101.2–117.9	+9.2%	+8.5% -12.0% to 24.0%	+4.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	+1.3 Cheap	105.9 99.1–113.3	+5.9%	+7.5% -13.0% to 23.0%	+3.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.3 Cheap	108.8 98.6–120.0	+8.8%	+8.0% -17.0% to 29.0%	+3.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.2 Fair	97.6 80.3–113.5	-2.4%	+5.0% -50.0% to 85.0%	+0.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	97.1 89.7–103.9	-2.9%	+5.5% -14.0% to 20.0%	+1.0%
Metals GLD	-1.5 Expensive	90.3 79.8–100.0	-9.7%	+1.5% -21.0% to 24.0%	-3.0%
US Equities SPY	-2.0 Expensive	90.1 82.7–96.9	-9.9%	+6.5% -14.0% to 23.0%	+2.0%
Energy USO	-2.1 Expensive	82.9 70.5–94.2	-17.2%	-6.0% -34.0% to 24.0%	-10.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+2.1Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 15.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 85% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.9Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 19.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 81% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 54%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.9Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 18.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 50%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+1.7Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 21.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 79%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 28.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 28.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 68%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 84.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-2.1Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 85.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 31%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources14

1
Highest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 5 Years
FactSet Research Systems
2
Analysts Increasing EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies For 2nd Straight Quarter
FactSet Research Systems
3
Stock Market Valuation - S&P 500
StreetStats (Overview Markets LLC)
4
Europe P/E ratio
Siblis Research
5
Global P/E ratios by country
Siblis Research
6
Emerging markets valuations
Siblis Research
7
The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
8
Quarterly REIT Performance Data
Nareit
9
BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, portfolio fundamentals
The Vanguard Group
10
EIA Sees 2026 Oil Price Coming in $22 Higher Than Last Year
Rigzone (reporting the U.S. EIA September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook and S&P Global Commodity Insights)
11
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — Central Banks
World Gold Council
12
Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata
13
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio
Newhedge
14
Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2026 Edition
Morningstar

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_20260925_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.