Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 28.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 108.8
- Upside to median
- +8.8%
- Last close
- $60.16
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Country-weighted earnings growth and dividend yield, plus a distribution of multiple outcomes built bottom-up from the individual market forward multiples rather than from the distorted aggregate, less a dollar-funding and local-currency component.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year country-weighted earnings projection with partial CAPE normalisation toward the emerging-market aggregate, discounted at a cost of equity that embeds today's US real yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled edge of roughly 3.5 percentage points over the 1-year Treasury, earned against a 46-point p10-to-p90 return spread and local-currency risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.3Cheap | 108.8 | $60.16 | +8.0% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 124.0 | $36.82 | +13.0% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +2.3Cheap | 118.0 | $66.48 | +11.0% |
| EWY South Korea Index | +1.5Cheap | 110.0 | $187.18 | +9.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $101.15 | +7.5% |
| INDA India Index | -0.1Fair | 99.0 | $47.86 | +6.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $114.78 | +3.5% |