Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 19.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 81% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 110.2
- Upside to median
- +10.2%
- Last close
- $90.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield plus same-store NOI-driven AFFO growth, plus partial closure of the NAV discount, less a distribution of cap-rate and refinancing-cost outcomes driven by the 10-year Treasury.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.5%
Three-year AFFO projection with partial normalisation of the NAV discount and a terminal cap rate distribution centred slightly below today's 7.8% implied median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled edge of roughly 3.5 percentage points over the 1-year Treasury, earned against real-estate equity volatility; the comparison is flagged proxy because the calibration benchmark is VNQ rather than the full listed real-estate universe.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.9Cheap | 110.2 | $90.99 | +8.0% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | +2.1Cheap | 112.0 | $18.90 | +10.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +1.7Cheap | 109.0 | $26.06 | +7.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +1.7Cheap | 109.0 | $89.20 | +7.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +1.3Cheap | 107.0 | $41.56 | +7.0% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $29.00 | +5.0% |