Energy
Today’s price sits at the 85.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 82.9
- Upside to median
- -17.2%
- Last close
- $148.33
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -19.0%
- P10
- -34.0%
38% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended commodity and producer-equity distribution: the official and independent forward price paths applied to the front-month benchmark including positive roll yield from the current backwardation, combined with producer free-cash-flow valuation at a range of realised strip prices.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +5.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
Three-year path anchored on the published quarterly forward balance through 2027 and on marginal production cost thereafter, with roll yield modelled separately from spot price change.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- -10.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return is more than ten percentage points below the guaranteed 1-year Treasury yield. The commodity leg is currently priced above both the official and the independent forward supply-demand balance.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNG Natural Gas | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $11.13 | +6.0% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | $62.04 | +2.0% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | -1.6Expensive | 88.0 | $181.50 | -1.0% |
| USO US Crude Oil | -2.1Expensive | 82.9 | $148.33 | -6.0% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | -2.3Exceptionally expensive | 80.0 | $59.65 | -8.0% |