Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 28.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.9
- Upside to median
- +5.9%
- Last close
- $97.93
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth plus a rising payout from the ongoing buyback and cross-shareholding unwind, plus a distribution of multiple outcomes around a 16.6x forward starting point, with an explicit unhedged yen translation component.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year earnings projection incorporating continued return-on-equity improvement, with a terminal multiple held close to the global index rather than assuming a premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled three-point edge over the 1-year Treasury, of which a meaningful share depends on the yen for an unhedged dollar investor.