China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 18.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 115.2
- Upside to median
- +15.2%
- Last close
- $52.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth from consensus estimates haircut for the historically high downgrade rate in this market, plus distribution and buyback yield, plus a distribution of multiple outcomes around an 11.1x offshore forward P/E starting point.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year earnings projection with partial normalisation toward a justified 13x-14x offshore multiple, discounted at a policy-risk-adjusted cost of equity.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +5.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The largest modelled edge over the 1-year Treasury in this report, and also the widest return distribution: the p10 to p90 span is 58 percentage points against a guaranteed 4.5%.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.9Cheap | 115.2 | $52.62 | +10.0% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +2.3Cheap | 120.0 | $22.26 | +11.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +2.3Cheap | 119.0 | $25.44 | +10.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +2.2Cheap | 118.0 | $33.96 | +11.0% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.8Cheap | 114.0 | $15.91 | +10.5% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +1.7Cheap | 113.0 | $24.58 | +11.5% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +1.6Cheap | 112.0 | $4.28 | +11.0% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +1.5Cheap | 111.0 | $46.44 | +10.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $33.09 | +7.5% |