Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 53.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.6
- Upside to median
- -2.4%
- Last close
- $47.57
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +45.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -50.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario distribution over on-chain valuation bands and institutional flow outcomes; the distribution is intentionally very wide and the median carries little information relative to its own dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Three-year scenario distribution anchored on supply issuance, the aggregate cost-basis floor concept and a range of adoption outcomes.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled median return is essentially the same as the guaranteed 1-year Treasury yield, but with a 135-percentage-point p10-to-p90 spread around it. On this evidence the Treasury is the better risk-adjusted proposition.