Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 60.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.1
- Upside to median
- -2.9%
- Last close
- $28.43
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
High regional dividend yield plus low-single-digit earnings growth, less a distribution of multiple outcomes from an 18.7x Australian forward starting point that sits above the global index.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year country-weighted earnings projection with partial multiple normalisation toward the global index and reinvested dividends.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled one-point edge over the 1-year Treasury against a 34-point return spread; on this evidence the Treasury offers a competitive return with materially lower uncertainty.