Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 21.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 109.2
- Upside to median
- +9.2%
- Last close
- $88.63
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of roughly 3.2% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth, plus a distribution of multiple outcomes around a 15.4x forward starting point, with an explicit euro-dollar translation component for the unhedged US-listed benchmark.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year earnings projection with partial normalisation of the CAPE toward its own decade history, plus reinvested dividends, discounted at a euro-area cost of equity.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +4.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled edge of about four percentage points over the 1-year Treasury, roughly matching the dividend yield plus a modest valuation contribution; the currency leg is unhedged for a dollar investor.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | +1.7Cheap | 109.2 | $88.63 | +8.5% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +2.3Cheap | 114.0 | $47.32 | +9.5% |
| EWQ France Index | +2.0Cheap | 111.0 | $43.85 | +9.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | +1.7Cheap | 109.5 | $68.71 | +8.5% |
| EWG Germany Index | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $42.26 | +8.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $60.66 | +6.0% |