Metals
Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.3
- Upside to median
- -9.7%
- Last close
- $393.41
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -21.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change distribution only, since the core holdings generate no cash flow; built from real-yield sensitivity, official-sector and investment demand scenarios, and industrial balances, with a separate free-cash-flow component for the producer equities.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -10.0%
Three-year real-price distribution anchored on marginal production cost, expected real-yield paths and a range of official-sector demand outcomes.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- -3.0%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return is three percentage points below the guaranteed 1-year Treasury yield. Holding a non-yielding asset against a 4.5% risk-free rate requires the real-yield regime to reverse.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -1.5Expensive | 90.3 | $393.41 | +1.5% |
| SLV Silver | -1.3Expensive | 92.0 | $58.14 | +2.5% |
| GDX Gold Miners | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $92.87 | +4.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $61.14 | +6.0% |
| CPER Copper | +0.3Fair | 102.0 | $40.61 | +6.5% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $25.93 | +5.5% |
| PPLT Platinum | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $16.09 | +6.0% |