US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 84.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.1
- Upside to median
- -9.9%
- Last close
- $771.35
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward earnings roll of roughly 12% on consensus estimates, haircut for the historical tendency of consensus to overstate, plus a 1.1% dividend yield, less a distribution of forward-multiple outcomes centred on modest compression from 19.4x.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year earnings projection with partial normalisation of the profit share, a terminal multiple distribution centred below today's, and reinvested dividends; cross-checked against published ten-year capital market assumptions adjusted downward for the intervening 16.5% index gain and roughly 100bp rise in yields.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Expected excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled two-point edge over the 1-year Treasury against a 37-point return spread. The forward earnings yield of 5.15% is essentially identical to the 5.17% ten-year Treasury yield, so the risk premium being offered here is close to zero on that measure.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $170.70 | +8.5% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $281.97 | +8.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $54.84 | +7.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $211.11 | +7.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.3Expensive | 94.0 | $517.49 | +7.0% |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 90.1 | $771.35 | +6.5% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.2Expensive | 89.0 | $170.43 | +5.5% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 87.0 | $110.56 | +5.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.7Exceptionally expensive | 84.0 | $744.50 | +5.0% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -2.9Exceptionally expensive | 80.0 | $606.56 | +4.0% |