Valuation Lens — September 17, 2026

Real yields near multi-decade highs and record US profit margins leave most equity markets priced above modeled economic value; broad fixed income and US real estate sit closest to fair value, and no asset class clears the publication gate for a calibrated Treasury-beat probability.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 17, 2026Last market session Sep 17, 2026Data cutoff Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.40%1y Treasury

A one-year Treasury par yield of 4.40% with a 2.61% ten-year real yield at the 99.9th percentile of its ten-year range sets an unusually demanding hurdle for every risk asset, and the FOMC raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026.

10y Treasury: 4.9%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Real EstateVNQ
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.391.4–104.5
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+6.7%-15.5% to 27.8%
vs Treasury
+2.3%
Fixed IncomeBND
0.0
Fair
Median fair value
100.097.6–103.7
Upside to median
0.0%
1y modeled
+5.2%-1.0% to 11.1%
vs Treasury
+0.8%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
97.487.9–110.2
Upside to median
-2.6%
1y modeled
+8.8%-29.5% to 50.5%
vs Treasury
+4.4%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
92.578.6–120.3
Upside to median
-7.5%
1y modeled
+2.0%-52.0% to 72.0%
vs Treasury
-2.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.985.5–104.0
Upside to median
-7.2%
1y modeled
+6.3%-20.3% to 32.2%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.284.0–107.0
Upside to median
-3.8%
1y modeled
+6.0%-20.6% to 36.7%
vs Treasury
+1.6%
MetalsGLD
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.484.4–109.8
Upside to median
-7.6%
1y modeled
+1.5%-26.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
-2.9%
EnergyUSO
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
90.673.9–108.2
Upside to median
-9.4%
1y modeled
-2.0%-34.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
-6.4%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
84.372.5–102.5
Upside to median
-15.7%
1y modeled
+3.7%-36.0% to 46.3%
vs Treasury
-0.7%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.2
Expensive
Median fair value
88.782.0–98.4
Upside to median
-11.3%
1y modeled
+6.0%-20.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+1.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.2
Expensive
Median fair value
87.877.9–97.5
Upside to median
-12.3%
1y modeled
+3.0%-25.5% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
-1.4%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-17, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Real Estate VNQ	+0.1 Fair	100.3 91.4–104.5	+0.3%	+6.7% -15.5% to 27.8%	+2.3%
Fixed Income BND	0.0 Fair	100.0 97.6–103.7	0.0%	+5.2% -1.0% to 11.1%	+0.8%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.3 Fair	97.4 87.9–110.2	-2.6%	+8.8% -29.5% to 50.5%	+4.4%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.3 Fair	92.5 78.6–120.3	-7.5%	+2.0% -52.0% to 72.0%	-2.4%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	92.9 85.5–104.0	-7.2%	+6.3% -20.3% to 32.2%	+1.9%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	96.2 84.0–107.0	-3.8%	+6.0% -20.6% to 36.7%	+1.6%
Metals GLD	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	92.4 84.4–109.8	-7.6%	+1.5% -26.0% to 28.0%	-2.9%
Energy USO	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	90.6 73.9–108.2	-9.4%	-2.0% -34.0% to 30.0%	-6.4%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.4 Expensive	84.3 72.5–102.5	-15.7%	+3.7% -36.0% to 46.3%	-0.7%
US Equities SPY	-2.2 Expensive	88.7 82.0–98.4	-11.3%	+6.0% -20.0% to 30.0%	+1.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.2 Expensive	87.8 77.9–97.5	-12.3%	+3.0% -25.5% to 32.0%	-1.4%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 54%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

0.0Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 50.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 50%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 57.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 79%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 69%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 44%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 40%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 67%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.2Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 86.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.2Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 85.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources29

1
FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2
Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global Oil Markets, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
3
Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
4
We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027
U.S. Energy Information Administration
5
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet Research Systems (Earnings Insight)
6
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: July 24, 2026
FactSet Research Systems (Earnings Insight)
7
S&P 500 Reporting Highest Net Profit Margin in More Than 15 Years
FactSet Research Systems (Earnings Insight)
8
2026 REIT Trading Trends — S&P Global Market Intelligence premium/discount to NAV
Commercial Property Executive (data: S&P Global Market Intelligence)
9
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
10
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
11
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
12
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
13
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
14
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
15
iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
16
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
17
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
18
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
19
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
20
Brent Crude Oil — price, chart and historical data
Trading Economics
21
Platinum — price, chart and historical data
Trading Economics
22
The price of gold today, Sept. 17, 2026
CNBC Select
23
Current price of silver as of Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026
Fortune
24
Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata Research
25
Bitcoin price today, BTC to USD live price, market cap and chart
CoinDesk
26
Copper — price, chart and historical data
Trading Economics
27
Copper Prices Are Forecast to Decline Somewhat from Record Highs in 2026
Goldman Sachs
28
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Trading Economics
29
United States Stock Market Index (S&P 500) quote and historical data
Trading Economics

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_vl_20260917_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.