Metals
Today’s price sits at the 60.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.4
- Upside to median
- -7.6%
- Last close
- $398.36
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -13.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change distribution for the bullion holdings, which produce no cash flow, blended with free-cash-flow-driven returns for the mining-equity holdings. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile blended scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +9.1%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -4.6%
- P10
- -11.0%
Three-year annualised price change under real-yield and official-sector demand scenarios for bullion, plus producer free-cash-flow and shareholder-return accumulation for the mining-equity sleeve.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- -2.9%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year expected return sits nearly three percentage points below the one-year Treasury yield. Gold's role as a portfolio diversifier and currency hedge is a Portfolio Lens question and is not captured by this expected-return comparison.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 92.4 | $398.36 | +1.5% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $95.92 | +4.5% |
| SLV Silver | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $58.97 | +1.5% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.3Fair | 105.0 | $16.06 | +2.5% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | —Unavailable | — | $62.33 | — |
| CPER Copper | —Unavailable | — | $39.66 | — |
| DBB Base Metals | —Unavailable | — | $25.71 | — |