Energy
Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.6
- Upside to median
- -9.4%
- Last close
- $155.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -18.8%
- P10
- -34.0%
47% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended distribution across direct crude exposure, where the official forecast implies a large decline as supply disruptions ease, natural gas, where the official forecast implies a rise from a depressed spot level, and producer equities, which carry a high shareholder yield and are already valued off lower long-run prices. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile blended outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +8.8%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -6.4%
- P10
- -14.0%
Three-year annualised return in which the crude disruption premium unwinds early and producer free cash flow and distributions accumulate, with structural capacity and demand growth setting the terminal price assumption.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- -6.4%
- Basis
- direct
The widest negative modeled edge in this report. Buying the energy complex at a disruption-driven crude price implies accepting a return below cash on the official supply-and-demand forecast; the case for holding energy here is portfolio hedging against further escalation rather than expected return.