Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 85.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.8
- Upside to median
- -12.3%
- Last close
- $29.13
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +18.3%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -25.5%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into roughly 5% earnings growth, a distribution yield near 4.3% on the representative benchmark, and a negative valuation change consistent with the modeled fair-value gap. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -1.8%
- P10
- -7.0%
Three-year annualised return from modest earnings growth plus a high distribution yield, with partial reversion of the current multiple toward the market's own long-run average and an allowance for a bank credit cycle.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year expected return sits below the 4.40% one-year Treasury yield. Paying more than 20 times earnings for a bank-and-miner index while the risk-free alternative yields 4.40% is the least attractive equity risk-reward in this report.