Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 48.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.3
- Upside to median
- +0.3%
- Last close
- $93.81
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.8%
- P75
- +17.8%
- Median
- +6.7%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.5%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into adjusted funds-from-operations growth of roughly 4%, a distribution yield near 3.7% on the representative benchmark, and a valuation change drawn from the modeled net-asset-value convergence and cap-rate scenarios. The distribution is a two-piece normal fitted to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.7%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.8%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year annualised total return from sustained adjusted funds-from-operations growth plus distribution yield, with partial rather than full convergence of the net-asset-value discount and an explicit allowance for refinancing costs at prevailing debt yields.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- +2.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected total return of 6.7% against a 4.40% one-year Treasury par yield. This is a modeled spread over a contractual alternative, not a guaranteed excess return, and the Treasury yield carries materially less uncertainty than the REIT return distribution.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.1Fair | 100.3 | $93.81 | +6.7% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +0.1Fair | 100.3 | $42.94 | +6.7% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +0.1Fair | 100.3 | $26.49 | +6.7% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +0.1Fair | 100.3 | $91.13 | +6.7% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.81 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $19.80 | — |