US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 86.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.7
- Upside to median
- -11.3%
- Last close
- $762.60
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +18.6%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -7.7%
- P10
- -20.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into forward earnings growth of roughly 9% as growth decelerates from a 30% calendar-2026 pace, a shareholder yield near 2.4% from dividends and net buybacks, and a modest negative valuation change reflecting the modeled fair-value gap and a rising policy path. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes, with the downside scale widened to reflect the left-skew of equity return history. An expensive valuation does not imply a negative expected return, which is why this figure remains positive.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.7%
- Median
- +4.4%
- P25
- -1.1%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year annualised return from sustainable earnings growth of roughly 5% after partial margin normalisation, a 2.4% shareholder yield, and a gradual multiple decline from 20.0 times toward the ten-year average of 19.0 times. Partial rather than full mean reversion is assumed throughout.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled 1.6 percentage point edge over the one-year Treasury for a return distribution whose tenth percentile is a 20% loss. On this evidence the one-year Treasury delivers most of the expected return of the S&P 500 with materially lower uncertainty, which is the plainest statement of the current US risk-reward.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.2Expensive | 88.7 | $762.60 | +6.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.6Expensive | 92.0 | $213.31 | +6.4% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.9Expensive | 90.0 | $518.35 | +6.1% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 92.0 | $285.43 | +6.4% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $716.92 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $560.61 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.88 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.01 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.81 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $111.39 | — |