Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 57.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.9
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- Last close
- $89.37
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.2%
- P75
- +19.9%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- -7.7%
- P10
- -20.3%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into roughly 6% earnings growth, a combined dividend and buyback yield near 4.5%, and a modest negative valuation change consistent with the modeled fair-value gap. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.2%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +0.1%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year annualised return from mid-single-digit earnings growth plus a high shareholder yield, with partial rather than full reversion of the current multiple toward its own long-run average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled 1.9 percentage point edge over the one-year Treasury is thin relative to a return distribution whose tenth percentile is a 20.3% loss; most of the expected return comes from the distribution yield rather than from valuation.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 92.9 | $89.37 | +6.3% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 92.9 | $68.75 | +6.3% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 92.9 | $47.95 | +6.3% |
| EWG Germany Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 92.9 | $42.69 | +6.3% |
| EWQ France Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 92.9 | $44.41 | +6.3% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $60.34 | — |