Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 55.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 92.5
- Upside to median
- -7.5%
- Last close
- $43.30
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +72.0%
- P75
- +38.8%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -26.4%
- P10
- -52.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change-only distribution because the asset produces no contractual cash flow. Centred near the cost-basis anchor with a deliberately wide two-piece normal fitted to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes; the width reflects realised crypto drawdown history rather than a model of expected appreciation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +22.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -10.8%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year annualised price change under adoption and institutional-access scenarios, with issuance dilution netted out and no cash-flow component. The range remains very wide and is not a forecast of a cycle path.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year expected return sits below the 4.40% one-year Treasury yield while carrying by far the widest return distribution in this report, so on this evidence the Treasury offers a better expected return with dramatically lower uncertainty.