China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 55.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.4
- Upside to median
- -2.6%
- Last close
- $52.67
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +50.5%
- P75
- +30.8%
- Median
- +8.8%
- P25
- -11.4%
- P10
- -29.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into roughly 8% earnings growth from a depressed base, a combined dividend and buyback yield near 3.0%, and a wide policy-driven valuation-change distribution. The result is a two-piece normal fitted to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -0.4%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year annualised return from sustained mid-single-digit to high-single-digit earnings growth plus shareholder yield, with partial convergence of the peer multiple discount and an explicit allowance for a persistent governance and geopolitical discount.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- +4.4%
- Basis
- direct
The widest modeled edge over the one-year Treasury in this report, but it is drawn from the widest return distribution: the tenth percentile outcome is a 29.5% loss, so the edge is compensation for genuine dispersion rather than a free premium.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.3Fair | 97.4 | $52.67 | +8.8% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | -0.3Fair | 97.4 | $34.19 | +8.8% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | -0.3Fair | 97.4 | $22.52 | +8.8% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | -0.3Fair | 97.4 | $25.30 | +8.8% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.21 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.43 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.40 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $46.27 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.19 | — |