Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.2
- Upside to median
- -3.8%
- Last close
- $97.91
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +36.7%
- P75
- +22.2%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -20.6%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into roughly 8% earnings growth after decelerating from the current fiscal-year estimate, a combined distribution and buyback yield near 4.5%, and a negative valuation change reflecting the rise in domestic government bond yields. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.6%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -0.8%
- P10
- -6.5%
Three-year annualised return from sustained corporate reform improving return on equity and payout, offset by a gradual rise in the domestic discount rate as the Bank of Japan continues to normalise policy.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled 1.6 percentage point edge over the one-year Treasury for a return distribution whose tenth percentile is a 20.6% loss; for an unhedged US-dollar investor the yen path is a material additional source of both return and risk.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.2 | $97.91 | +6.0% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.2 | $104.57 | +6.0% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.2 | $49.66 | +6.0% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | —Unavailable | — | $179.83 | — |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | —Unavailable | — | $110.75 | — |