Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 84.3
- Upside to median
- -15.7%
- Last close
- $59.91
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +46.3%
- P75
- +26.1%
- Median
- +3.7%
- P25
- -17.2%
- P10
- -36.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into roughly 10% earnings growth driven by the semiconductor cycle, a combined distribution and buyback yield near 2.5%, and a negative valuation change consistent with the modeled fair-value gap. Fitted as a two-piece normal to the tenth, fiftieth and ninetieth percentile scenario outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +11.6%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -2.6%
- P10
- -9.0%
Three-year annualised return with partial reversion of the current multiple toward a composition-adjusted normal level, mid-cycle rather than peak semiconductor earnings, and an allowance for currency translation from a weaker broad dollar.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.40%
- Expected excess
- -0.7%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year expected return falls just below the 4.40% one-year Treasury while carrying a distribution whose tenth percentile is a 36% loss; on this evidence the Treasury is the better risk-adjusted holding.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.4Expensive | 84.3 | $59.91 | +3.7% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -1.4Expensive | 84.3 | $99.23 | +3.7% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $110.64 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $182.39 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.01 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.74 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $68.69 | — |