Skip to content
CXProWealth

Valuation Lens — September 15, 2026

With the 1-year Treasury paying 4.39% and 10-year real yields at the top of their decade range, modeled economic value sits below market price across US equities, REITs, Japan and crude oil, while China, emerging markets and investment-grade bonds are the only places where the modeled fair-value distribution sits meaningfully above today's price.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Last market session Data cutoff
The hurdle to beat
4.39%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.39% sets today's annual hurdle while 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.00% and 2.62% both sit at the top of their 10-year ranges, raising the discount rate applied to every long-duration cash-flow asset.

10y Treasury
5.0%
10y real
2.6%
Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market
+1.7Cheap
507090110130150170190FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 20.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 79% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
+1.5Cheap
507090110130150170190FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 25.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 75% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 67%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market
+1.0Somewhat cheap
507090110130150170190FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin
+0.5Somewhat cheap
205080110140170200230260FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 41.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market
-1.1Somewhat expensive
507090110130150170190FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 79%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market
-1.2Somewhat expensive
507090110130150170190FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 68%

Metals

GLD · Gold
-1.4Expensive
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate
-1.9Expensive
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 54%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil
-1.9Expensive
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 36%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market
-1.9Expensive
507090110130150170190FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 69%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index
-2.0Expensive
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 85%
Sources14
  1. 1
    FactSet Earnings Insight — September 11, 2026
    FactSet Research Systems
  2. 2
    Global P/E Ratios (Price-Earnings) by Country
    Siblis Research
  3. 3
    Europe P/E (Price-Earnings) Ratio & Earnings Growth — European Equity Valuations
    Siblis Research
  4. 4
    Nikkei 225 (Japan) P/E Ratio & Earnings Growth
    Siblis Research
  5. 5
    Emerging Markets Equity Valuations
    Siblis Research
  6. 6
    Shiller PE Ratio
    Multpl
  7. 7
    S&P 500 PE Ratio
    Multpl
  8. 8
    S&P 500 Dividend Yield
    Multpl
  9. 9
    REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Monthly Data for August 2026
    Nareit
  10. 10
    Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Portfolio Fundamentals
    The Vanguard Group
  11. 11
    Short-Term Energy Outlook — September 2026
    U.S. Energy Information Administration
  12. 12
    Gold Demand Trends and gold spot price
    World Gold Council
  13. 13
    Bitcoin MVRV Ratio
    Newhedge
  14. 14
    Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
    Amberdata
Methodology
cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version
3.4.0
Run ID
cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-09-15_260915001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.