Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 81.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.0
- Upside to median
- -15.0%
- Last close
- $94.10
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +4.2%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into the current 3.68% distribution yield, modeled AFFO growth, and a valuation-change term driven by the modeled path of the REIT dividend-yield spread over the 10-year Treasury, with only partial convergence toward modeled fair value over one year.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year AFFO and distribution path with a partially normalised terminal capitalisation rate reflecting current financing costs, discounted to present value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- -0.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 4.2% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield, essentially a dead heat. Taking property cycle, leverage and duration risk is not modeled to earn anything over a one-year Treasury on this evidence, which is the clearest single statement in this report that risk-taking is not currently rewarded in this asset class.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.9Expensive | 85.0 | $94.10 | +4.2% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -1.9Expensive | 85.0 | $43.07 | +4.2% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -1.9Expensive | 85.0 | $26.52 | +4.2% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $91.54 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.42 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $19.89 | — |