Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $28.89
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into modest forward earnings growth, the region's high cash distribution yield, a multiple-normalisation drag, and a currency translation term, with only partial convergence toward modeled fair value over one year.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year explicit earnings path with a partially normalised terminal multiple and the region's high payout ratio maintained, discounted to present value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 6.8% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. More than half the modeled return is cash distribution rather than growth or re-rating, so the edge is comparatively income-dependent.