Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 41.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 108.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Last close
- $43.11
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +95.0%
- P75
- +48.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -26.0%
- P10
- -52.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return derived from movement in the market-value-to-realized-value ratio combined with the ongoing rise in aggregate cost basis and net supply issuance. There is no carry, coupon or shareholder yield term, so the entire distribution is a valuation-change distribution and its width reflects that.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +45.0%
- P75
- +26.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Three-year path for the justified valuation ratio combined with modeled growth in aggregate cost basis and continued supply issuance, with no assumption that historical four-year cycle amplitude repeats.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled one-year median return of 7.0% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. The modeled edge of 2.6 points sits inside a ten-to-ninety range spanning roughly 147 percentage points, so on this evidence the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with dramatically lower uncertainty.