Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 25.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 75% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 110.0
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- Last close
- $59.22
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +10.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into forward earnings growth weighted by country composition, distribution yield, valuation change and a US dollar translation term, with only partial convergence toward modeled fair value over one year.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year explicit earnings path with the semiconductor earnings cycle normalised toward trend and a partially normalised terminal multiple, discounted to present value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- +6.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 10.5% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. The modeled edge is meaningful but the ten-to-ninety range spans roughly 52 percentage points, so the Treasury offers a far more certain, if lower, outcome.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.5Cheap | 110.0 | $59.22 | +10.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +1.5Cheap | 110.0 | $96.96 | +10.5% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $106.67 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $176.49 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.78 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $68.92 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.59 | — |