Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $88.96
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into forward earnings growth, the region's relatively high distribution yield, a modest multiple-normalisation drag, and a dollar translation term, with only partial convergence toward modeled fair value over one year.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year explicit earnings path at the region's historically modest growth rate with a partially normalised terminal multiple, plus distributions, discounted to present value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 8.0% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. A large share of the modeled return is cash distributions rather than multiple expansion, which is why the edge survives despite modeled value sitting below market price.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | $88.96 | +8.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | $68.33 | +8.0% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.80 | — |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.53 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $44.29 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $60.25 | — |