US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.0
- Upside to median
- -15.0%
- Last close
- $757.39
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into earnings-per-share growth haircut from the exceptional consensus rate toward a sustainable path, the 1.07% dividend yield plus net buyback contribution, and a modest multiple-normalisation drag. The long-run historical equity return is used only as an unconditional prior and is explicitly adjusted for today's starting valuation, the 4.39% risk-free rate and the record profit share.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year explicit earnings and free-cash-flow path with partial normalisation of the profit share toward its ten-year mean, a terminal multiple between the current and ten-year-average forward multiple, and shareholder distributions, discounted to present value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 6.5% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. A 2.1 point modeled edge inside a ten-to-ninety range spanning 41 points is historically thin compensation for equity risk, and it is consistent with an equity-risk-premium proxy sitting at the floor of its recorded history.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 85.0 | $757.39 | +6.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -2.0Expensive | 85.0 | $521.23 | +6.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -2.0Expensive | 85.0 | $213.96 | +6.5% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 85.0 | $285.14 | +6.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $704.54 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $542.11 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.85 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.85 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.66 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $110.88 | — |