Energy
Today’s price sits at the 81.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 84.0
- Upside to median
- -16.0%
- Last close
- $161.86
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -21.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
40% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return for a front-month crude vehicle, combining the modeled spot price path toward the published 2027 forecast, a roll-yield term reflecting the curve shape implied by falling inventories, and collateral interest earned on the fund's cash at short Treasury rates.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- -1.5%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Three-year path in which spot crude converges toward the marginal full-cycle production cost after the 2027 inventory rebuild, with roll yield and collateral interest accumulated along the way.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- -10.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled one-year median return of -6.0% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield, a modeled shortfall of 10.4 points and the widest negative edge in this report. This reflects an official forecast that global supply recovers and inventories rebuild through 2027, not a view about recent price direction.