China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 20.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 79% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 115.0
- Upside to median
- +15.0%
- Last close
- $52.91
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +27.0%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into forward earnings growth, trailing distribution yield and valuation change, with only partial convergence toward modeled fair value permitted over a one-year horizon. Dispersion is widened for policy, regulatory and currency risk specific to this market.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year explicit earnings path with a partially normalised terminal multiple, plus distributions, discounted to present value; no assumption of full mean reversion to the pre-2022 multiple regime.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- +6.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 11.0% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. This is a modeled spread over a risk-free alternative, not a guaranteed excess return, and the dispersion around it is far wider than for the Treasury.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.7Cheap | 115.0 | $52.91 | +11.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.7Cheap | 115.0 | $34.40 | +11.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.7Cheap | 115.0 | $25.42 | +11.0% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.7Cheap | 115.0 | $22.47 | +11.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.24 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.24 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.25 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $46.11 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.48 | — |