Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.0
- Upside to median
- -14.0%
- Last close
- $96.92
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into continued strong forward earnings growth, a rising but still modest shareholder yield from buybacks and dividends, a multiple-normalisation drag from a cyclically adjusted multiple at the top of its range, and a yen translation term.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year explicit earnings path with the recent earnings surge partially normalised and a terminal multiple between the market's current and decade-average levels, plus distributions, discounted to present value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return of 5.5% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield. A 1.1 point modeled edge inside a ten-to-ninety range spanning 44 points is thin compensation for equity risk, and the dollar-based investor also carries unhedged yen exposure.