Metals
Today’s price sits at the 72.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.0
- Upside to median
- -11.0%
- Last close
- $394.15
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return combining partial convergence toward modeled fair value with the path of real yields, the broad dollar and structural demand. There is no coupon, dividend or carry term for the physical metal, so the entire distribution is a valuation-change distribution; the mining-equity members contribute a free-cash-flow term at the asset-class level.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
Three-year path for the real metal price under a gradual normalisation of real yields from their decade high, combined with continued but decelerating structural demand growth.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.39%
- Expected excess
- -3.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled one-year median return of 1.0% against the 4.39% one-year Treasury par yield, a modeled shortfall of 3.4 points. On this evidence the Treasury offers a higher expected return with materially lower uncertainty, which is the direct consequence of holding a zero-yielding asset while real yields sit at a decade high.