Valuation Lens — September 14, 2026
Core bonds screen modestly cheap at a 5.2% portfolio yield, China, Europe and bitcoin sit near modeled fair value, and US equities and crude oil trade well above today's modeled economic value.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.37% sets a demanding hurdle, with 10-year nominal (4.97%) and real (2.60%) yields near the top of their 20-year ranges.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.6%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 100.998.5–101.8
- Upside to median
- +0.9%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%-1.6% to 12.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- 0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.986.1–106.1
- Upside to median
- -0.1%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-28.2% to 35.8%
- vs Treasury
- +2.6%
- CryptoBTC-USD0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.885.2–120.5
- Upside to median
- -0.2%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-54.7% to 86.3%
- vs Treasury
- -1.4%
- -0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.789.6–102.4
- Upside to median
- -0.3%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-17.0% to 26.6%
- vs Treasury
- +2.6%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.5Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.692.4–103.1
- Upside to median
- -1.4%
- 1y modeled
- +7.1%-21.1% to 30.2%
- vs Treasury
- +2.7%
- -0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.289.5–103.9
- Upside to median
- -3.8%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-17.5% to 26.1%
- vs Treasury
- +2.1%
- MetalsGLD-0.9Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.388.4–103.5
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-18.5% to 25.1%
- vs Treasury
- -2.4%
- -1.5Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.584.7–100.2
- Upside to median
- -6.5%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-20.7% to 30.6%
- vs Treasury
- +3.1%
- -1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.184.9–96.1
- Upside to median
- -8.9%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-19.9% to 26.3%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
- US EquitiesSPY-2.0Expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.383.9–96.4
- Upside to median
- -10.7%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-16.6% to 24.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- EnergyUSO-2.3Exceptionally expensive
- Median fair value
- 80.275.2–86.9
- Upside to median
- -19.8%
- 1y modeled
- -8.0%-51.6% to 45.8%
- vs Treasury
- -12.4%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 37.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 50.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 50.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–240 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 51.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 58.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 65.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 83.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 12% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 89.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 12% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources69
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- 3US MARKET CALL: Stocks Getting Cheaper As Earnings Outpace PricesYardeni QuickTakes
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- 5Shiller PE Ratiomultpl.com
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- 20
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- 23iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 24iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 25iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 26Hang Seng Index factsheet (August 2026)Hang Seng Indexes
- 27Hang Seng TECH Index factsheet (August 2026)Hang Seng Indexes
- 28CSI 300 Index factsheetChina Securities Index Co.
- 29Guide to the Markets U.S. 3Q 2026J.P. Morgan Asset Management
- 30Market Letter: Japanese equities, capital efficiency and shareholder returnsDaiwa Asset Management
- 31
- 32iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 33iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 34iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 35iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 36iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 37iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 38ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / ICE Data Indices
- 39ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / ICE Data Indices
- 40Q2 2026 Corporate Bond Market OutlookBreckinridge Capital Advisors
- 41
- 42
- 43Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) product pageState Street Global Advisors
- 44iShares Global REIT ETF (REET) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 45iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 46iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 47
- 48
- 49
- 50
- 51
- 52The State of REITs: May 2026 Edition2nd Market Capital
- 53Gold pricesWorld Gold Council
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- 55Record gold prices outpace rising mining costs in Q1'26World Gold Council
- 56World Silver Survey 2026 releaseThe Silver Institute
- 57Platinum market surplus of 265 koz forecast for 2026; inventories remain critically depletedWorld Platinum Investment Council
- 58
- 59Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 60Crude Oil Spot Prices (daily)U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 61Dallas Fed Energy Survey, Second Quarter 2026Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- 62Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) statisticsStockAnalysis
- 63VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) statisticsStockAnalysis
- 64Bitcoin priceCoinGecko
- 65Bitcoin MVRV ratioNewhedge
- 66Bitcoin realized priceNewhedge
- 67Ethereum priceCoinGecko
- 68Bitcoin ETF Flow – All DataFarside Investors
- 69Ethereum ETF Flow – All DataFarside Investors
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation_lens_2026-09-14_260914001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.