Energy
Today’s price sits at the 89.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 12% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 80.2
- Upside to median
- -19.8%
- Last close
- $156.66
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +45.8%
- P75
- +20.3%
- Median
- -8.0%
- P25
- -30.9%
- P10
- -51.6%
42% of modeled scenarios end positive.
EIA-implied WTI decline toward the 2027 price path, partly offset by collateral T-bill income (about 4%) and expected positive roll yield from a backwardated curve (not directly verified); assumed 38% annual volatility with right skew (left 34%, right 42%) given supply-shock risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +10.3%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -19.2%
- P10
- -31.1%
Spot convergence toward Dallas Fed and EIA medium-term price expectations spread over three years, plus collateral income; volatility scaled by the square root of three with right skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- -12.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the 1-year Treasury offers a materially higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.