Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 50.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–240 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.8
- Upside to median
- -0.2%
- Last close
- $44.74
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +86.3%
- P75
- +46.8%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -27.4%
- P10
- -54.7%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash yield or valuation convergence (median fair value near market); small positive drift from ETF-driven adoption offset by issuance and fees; assumed 55% annual volatility with right skew (left 45%, right 65%).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +52.1%
- P75
- +29.3%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -13.5%
- P10
- -29.3%
Same assumptions annualized over three years with volatility scaled by the square root of three and right skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled median does not clear the Treasury hurdle and the range of outcomes is extremely wide.