Metals
Today’s price sits at the 65.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.3
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- Last close
- $392.84
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.1%
- P75
- +14.1%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -8.8%
- P10
- -18.5%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; central-bank demand and a softer dollar offset by a high real-yield opportunity cost, about 0.6 pp partial valuation convergence and a 0.4% expense ratio; assumed 17% annual volatility with slight right skew (left 16%, right 18%).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.8%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -3.7%
- P10
- -9.3%
Same assumptions annualized over three years; volatility scaled by the square root of three with slight right skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the 1-year Treasury currently offers a higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.