Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 58.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.6
- Upside to median
- -1.4%
- Last close
- $94.33
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-14
72/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.2%
- P75
- +19.2%
- Median
- +7.1%
- P25
- -7.7%
- P10
- -21.1%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield 3.3% plus FFO/NOI growth of about 4.0% less about 0.2 pp partial valuation convergence; assumed 20% annual volatility with modest left skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.1%
- P75
- +13.8%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -1.8%
- P10
- -9.5%
Same building blocks annualized over three years with slower FFO growth; volatility scaled by the square root of three with modest left skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.82 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $20.67 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $92.43 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.38 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 98.6 | $94.33 | +7.1% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.12 | — |